On October 18, 2023, Kimberly Marten, professor of political science, published a new article in Russian Analytical Digest titled "Russian Foreign Paramilitary Outfits Beyond Wagner.”
In the article for the online policy-relevant journal, which is based on a cooperative set of European institutions, Marten explores the possibility of different Russian paramilitary groups serving as alternative hosts for former Wagner Group members going forward. While it is still too early to know what will happen to the Wagner Group following the mutiny and subsequent death of leader Yevgeny Prigozhin over the summer of 2023, Marten presents several different trajectories for the fate of the group: Wagner may continue operations under new leadership, become more directly linked with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), be broken up by country or function, or be absorbed by other Russian paramilitary groups — the last of which is the focus of this paper.
Marten explains that should Wagner be taken under the control of other paramilitary outfits, the most likely contenders would be the Syria-based Redut (previously known as Shchit’, or “Shield”) or the similarly prominent Konvoy, both of which have financial ties with longtime Putin allies and years of good relations with the Russian Defense Ministry. Marten also notes several other groups that have the potential to absorb Wagner if Redut or Konvoy do not, and she points out that Russia’s recent encouragement of the creation of “volunteer” groups to bolster the country’s forces fighting against Ukraine serves as evidence of the Kremlin’s likely continued reliance on paramilitary groups well into the future.