On September 21, 2023, Kimberly Marten, professor of political science, participated in a Brookings Institution discussion on the future of Russian paramilitary groups in light of the Wagner Group mutiny, which took place in June. Brookings gathered top experts to discuss the Wagner Group’s military, political, economic, and misinformation operations, what restructuring of the group is underway, and what lies ahead for Russia’s proxy activities.
During the discussion, Marten paid special focus to the role of the Russian Defense Ministry and Russia’s military intelligence agency, the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (GRU). She explains that the Wagner Group was never truly a private military company or a mercenary outfit. Instead, the group always had a very deep relationship with the Defense Ministry, particularly the GRU.
Marten goes on to explain the importance of the role of the Russian Defense Ministry following the Wagner mutiny. However, she asserts that there will be major costs to Russia in integrating the Wagner Group into the military. Over the past few years, the Wagner Group has focused more on “guard duty” for Prighozin and Russian state interests in Africa and the Middle East, and Marten questions whether the GRU can resource and command this group amid Russia’s war with Ukraine. In Marten’s opinion, going forward little will change about the Wagner Group, except for its title and management, since it’s in Russia’s best interest to maintain Wagner’s current operations in Africa and the Middle East.